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Historically Low Interest Rates
In 2019, we saw national mortgage rates lower to new historical lows at 3.6%, and last month, we saw interest rates dip even lower to its lowest recorded level since Freddie Mac began tracking mortgage rates in 1971 (Washington Post, 2020). While interest rates will vary for person to person and for different areas, many homeowners in the Dayton area will find interest rates lower than their current mortgage interest rates. In this case, you might choose to refinance to lower your mortgage payment, or you are in need of a change, you also have an opportunity to increase your space, reduce your commute or find a home closer to family.
| Year | Lowest Rate | Highest Rate | Average Rate |
| 2019 | 3.63% | 5.34% | 4.25% |
| 2018 | 3.95% | 4.94% | 4.54% |
| 2017 | 3.78% | 4.30% | 3.99% |
| 2016 | 3.41% | 4.32% | 3.65% |
| 2015 | 3.59% | 4.09% | 3.85% |
| 2014 | 3.80% | 4.53% | 4.17% |
| 2013 | 3.34% | 4.58% | 3.98% |
| 2012 | 3.31% | 4.08% | 3.66% |
| 2011 | 3.91% | 5.05% | 4.45% |
| 2010 | 4.17% | 5.21% | 4.69% |
| 2009 | 4.71% | 5.59% | 5.04% |
| 2008 | 5.10% | 6.63% | 6.03% |
| 2007 | 5.96% | 6.74% | 6.34% |
| 2006 | 6.10% | 6.80% | 6.41% |
| 2005 | 5.53% | 6.37% | 5.87% |
| 2004 | 5.38% | 6.34% | 5.84% |
| 2003 | 5.21% | 6.44% | 5.83% |
| 2002 | 5.93% | 7.18% | 6.54% |
| 2001 | 6.45% | 7.24% | 6.97% |
| 2000 | 7.13% | 8.64% | 8.05% |
| Data Source: Value Penguin, 2020 | |||
Home Values Have Risen
In addition to low interest rates, we have seen on average, an 8% increase in home values this year and a 9.45% increase in median sale price across the Miami Valley region (Dayton Realtors, 2020). This attrition in related to even lower inventory levels than we experienced in 2019, and the continued high demand for homes in the area. To get a sense of the amount of inventory, we can look at an area’s absorption rate, or the rate at which available homes are sold in a specific market during a given time period. Year-to-date Montgomery county has an absorption rate of 31.51% for Single Family Homes and Condos. Historically, an absorption rate greater than 20% signals a seller’s market, while a rate below 15% is an indicator of a buyer’s market (Investopedia, 2020). Given we are 10 percentage points higher than the typical sellers market, helps to demonstrate the strength of the market for sellers.
| 2020 | 2019 | % Change | |
| Median Sale Price | $157,000 | $143,450 | 9.45% |
| Average Sales Price | $181,599 | $168,020 | 8.08% |
| Data Source: Dayton Realtors, 2020 | |||
Quicker Sale
In addition to strength of the market for sellers, the absorption rate is used to indicate the speed of an average real estate sale. An absorption rate of 31.5% indicates that out of 100 homes 31.5% of these homes are anticipated to be “absorbed” or sold within 30 days. When examining Single Family and Condo sales in the Montgomery county area from the start of the year until July, you’ll find 59% of sellers sold their home in 60 days (Dayton Realtors, 2020). While more than half sold within 60 days, some well-positioned sellers have seen homes receive offers, and go under contract within days or even hours from listing.
Serious Buyers
What does low inventory bring, in addition to quicker sales? Serious buyers. As there are fewer homes available, many of the buyers who are coming to the table are submitting offers with more favorable terms for sellers. Some of the more favorable terms you may see:
- Offers with all-cash financing
- Offers over asking
- Offers waiving inspections
- Offers with less or no conditions on addendum agreements
- Buyers with flexible move-out dates
While it is a great time for many to take advantage of these benefits, each property is unique, and so is each situation – if you have questions about selling in today’s market, reach to your real estate agent to review your options and assess the value of your home. If you are not yet working with a real estate professional, feel free to reach out to one of our helpful agents!
If you have questions about selling during COVID-19, please refer to our resource section.
Sources:
“Housing Data”, Miami Valley Region, Dayton Realtors, 2020
Absorption Rate Definition, Investopedia, 2020
